The Egyptian Demand for Water: Reality vs Strategies

MA Sultan - محمد سلطان

The national water balance methodology chose the starting point as 1998 because it is a year in which the all demanded data for the analysis was available. This analysis aims at solving and finding alternatives for the current and future problems, so, it was set to end after 20 years, 2017 which is also known as the "Time Horizon". By the advent of 2017, the strategies will have been already implemented will be considered as the Reference Case. In other words, the assumptions made for that time period will be held as a measuring stick for the water challenges and how the strategies were or were not efficient to mitigate it.

Having said that, to precisely gauge the demand of water, many elements had to be taken into consideration, like population growth, economic growth, industrial growth, increase in per capita income, and loss of agricultural area by the growth of the residential areas. On the other side, three main supply elements were also considered, namely," rainfall, evaporation and the inflow in lake Nasser" (NWRP project, 4)

Concerning the way of dealing with the aforementioned elements, 'facing the challenge' strategy is used or the most likely scenario which is made upon the basis of ''best estimates for the relevant variable".  One of the most crucial elements is Lake Nasser supply, for Nile discharge rate will increase due to global climate.  

The use of water has been under a great demand which accounted for a dramatic increase for water demand and the growth of municipal, domestic and industrial use of water. From a consuming perspective, agriculture occupies the first place by consuming 95% of the total consumption. One of the main policies that were used by the government to face the population increase is Horizontal expansion, it was initiated in 1982, that influenced agriculture by decreasing the irrigated areas by the sprawl of masses. El Salam Canal, Northern Sinai, and Toshka projects are very obvious examples of how the government used those areas as a new method for boosting agriculture and making use of the available water there.

Yet, the loss of the fertile land kept increasing due to urbanization. In 1989, this phenomenon was observed and studied and it was revealed that the total amount of the lost land does vary from 10.000 to 75.000 Feddan per year. Surprisingly, half of that estimation is located at the Delta which is one of the most fertile areas in the world (NWRP project, 5). The total irrigated area assumed by the Reference Conference by 2017 has to reach 11 million Feddan, and that happens by following such equation: (irrigated area in 1997- the loss by land-use change + horizontal expansion). Similarly, controlling the consumption of water and irrigation area will lead to a dramatic change in crop production. For 2017, the pattern of the crop production was also estimated by ASME model, which aims for "highest consumer-producer surplus by considering some constraints, like the availability of water, land and export possibilities"(NWRP project, 8). Accordingly, the agriculture production is expected to increase by 20% to 35% by 2017, and because of ''the improved crop varieties, the crop yield will increase too'' (NWRP project, 9).

 On the other hand, other types of water demand are expected to get improved too. As for the Municipal and industrial water demand, they depend on a couple of crucial factors, the population and industrial growth. Urbanization also does play a great role because future estimation is about to reach 48% by 2017. Consequently, the GDP is expected to reach 4.3% per year.  As for the drinking water demand, this type is precisely determined by three major elements, namely, "income & tariffs, type of connection, and the availability of sewer system" (NWRP project, 9).

14 million m³ /day or 5.31 BCM is considered as the average production of drinking water; however, half of the total production goes for Great Cairo and Alexandria, which implies a lot about the demographic and demanding situation. 17% of the total drinking water production is extracted from the underground water. As for the industrial water, it consumes 13% of the total production, and 55% of the industrial water abstracted from the Nile (NWRP project, 11). Regardless to the great portion consumed by the aforementioned sectors, the food sector is the largest water consumer followed by the chemical sector. Both sectors consume more than 80% of the industrial water. As for the potential of the industrial water, it is estimated that the demand will increase by 20% since the objectives based on economic analyses aim to provide new favorable conditions to boost the industry.  

Another component that was taken into consideration is sanitation. Almost 50% of the water waster is treated or chemically dealt with to be reused in -the main- urban areas only. However, the other 50% is either kept in septic tanks or discharged. As for 2017, it is aimed at reaching the capacity of 15 MCM/day and covering all the urban areas which will be an existential change for the sake of preserving and reusing the sources of water (NWRP project, 13).

The cost recovery, taxes, and subsidies were also included in the evaluation. 70% of the water service is subsidized by the government for the industrial sector, and 88% of the subsidy goes for the municipal sector. Yet, all these facts and numbers about the national water balance necessitate finding solutions for the new developments in supply. For example, finding and increasing new possibilities for supply is considered as a solution, like using the groundwater in the western desert, rainfall in Sinai, and flash flood for harvesting and desalination for certain local areas. Using these approaches, it will not increase the availability of water, but rather decrease the loss of water which is more important nowadays.

Regarding the increase in supply, it is mainly about increasing the availability of Nile water which could happen by achieving four major factors:

Implementing the projects for water conservation.

Reducing the evaporation of Lake Nasser by changing the operation.

Changing the discharge of the Nile to mitigate climate changes.

“Reduction in outflows to sinks” (NWRP project, 16).

Reaching that phase, it will be necessary to increase the efficiency of the available water. The Irrigation Improvement Project (IIP) aimed to improve the irrigation system in old land and to improve the distribution of water between the farmers. The IIP aims to cover 3.5 million Feddan, 70% of which is located at the delta which is the most providing area in terms of agriculture in Egypt. Also, the reuse of the drain water is a viable element for the national water balance. In fact, 3.5 BCM is the total reuse of drain water in 1997. As for 2017, it is expected to increase about 8.9 BCM and will hinge on a couple of factors; the salinity and quantity of water in the drains.

As for the current situation, it is realistic to think about improving the drainage conditions. Accordingly, the subsurface drainage is to be used as the main tool to improve the soil formation and to sustain and conserve its fertility. While for the ongoing draining, it needs rehabilitation programs. As for 2017, both of the drainage systems will be implemented and working properly (NWRP project, 22).

Ultimately, implementing such strategies must go concurrently with solving the problems of water quality. According to the status quo, it is more feasible to control -not to prevent- the pollution as a preliminary approach. Another way is to use clean production, but the dilemma is that using this way is very expensive. Accordingly, subsidizing this sector and providing encouragements for the classic producers is important to spread the mentality of clean production.