MA Sultan - محمد سلطان
The impact of the economy due to climate changes in Egypt is a very crucial issue since Egypt does rely on the environment resources, like the Nile which represents 98% of the water resource of Egypt. According to the “Potential Impacts of Climate Changes on the Egyptian Economy” report that was prepared from the UN in 2013, the most critical issue that Egypt is going to face because of the climate change is the following: Water resources and Agriculture, Tourism, Human Health, and Coastal Resources.
Firstly, the water sector is expected to face significant reduction either in the Nile flows or the water supplies in general, which consequently will lead to an increase in demand of water. The report does suggest many policies to be done in that case, one of which is enhancing the mechanism of the market in a trial to reduce the water demand. Such action could be done by charging fees on the users with accordance to their water usages, which reminds me of the polluter pays concept. Also, metering the private or public sector for the water usage, but in terms of the household’s usage, it can be postponed until the income per capita can be sufficient for that. Another policy to serve the water resources is enabling the trade of water by letting the consumers resell their water to others. In fact, it is very important because it serves the reallocation of water with higher prices. As for the irrigation sector, the report urges Egypt to cooperate with the arid and semi-arid states to work on researches in order to develop new techniques of reducing and efficiently using the water for irrigation.
Enhancing the supplies is also in a major factor in this dilemma since the population growth is rapid. The report suggests main issues be tackled for better use and enhancement of water supplies, namely, Desalination, Ruse, Groundwater, rainwater, line water distribution canals. The first policy is already done in Egypt, but it requires more energy which makes it more expensive and can be used only for the coastal areas. The second one is mainly about the possibility to reuse the household water for Industrial and agricultural means if it is properly treated. The third and fourth means are more about being an additional way to use more resources but they are more concentrated about coastal usages. Finally, it is expected the water canals are already losing 1500 million m3 of water yearly by seepage. Therefore, water management has to be pursued in order to lessen the effect of climate change. So, Egypt should have a long-term plan facing the changing besides another plan about the droughts that would occur and make Egypt dried and hotter.
For the agriculture adaptations, Egypt should seek improving the efficiency and the drought-tolerant crops. Improving the salinity-tolerant crops can reduce the yield losses in the Delta that is predictable to confront inundation. Also, Egypt should support the crop insurance to encourage the private sector and increase the yield for higher production especially now with less population than expected in the future. The report suggests that the fast scenario will increase the crops by 2.1% per year, whereas the slow scenario will be limited to 1% only. By the advent of 2060, the fast scenario will let Egypt gain almost 22 billion EGP annually, and for the assumption that would result in a welfare gain by 71 billion EGP or 4% of GDP.
Other adaptations about the agricultural sectors are about either allowing the agricultural import or about food subsidies. The first will help lowering the prices, and the welfare loss of 2060 will be limited to 40 billion EGP, but the fluctuation of the prices will be deemed as a side effect. Concerning the food subsidies, reducing or eliminating the subsidies will make the agricultural market more efficient and will help with the financial plan of the government especially because the climate changes will decrease the crop yield.
Concerning the tourism sector, tourism will be negatively affected, yet no precise estimation can be made about the amount of expected loss. Heat, costal erosion, quality and quantity of water are major factors contributing the negative effect, however; the government should take precautions adaptation planes in order to protect tourism from SLR and other changers by pumping sands into coasts and building sea walls.
The deterioration of all the aforementioned sectors will lead to air pollution which will directly affect the water quality because of the heat and air changes. In fact, the only solution should contain establishing an efficient public health care system along with decisive policies which will be expensive, but very important compared to the future cost. The report quoted the World Bank's report in 2002 showing that 20.000 Egyptians die annually due to air pollution which costs Egypt 3% of the GDP. Such calamity in air pollution will lead to the spread of infectious diseases which cannot be fought except through developing a system to predict and alarm about the spread of such diseases.
For the costal resources adaptations, scientifically speaking, the seal level will rise significantly as a result of the high temperature which will lead loosen the bonds between the water molecules and accounts for the rise of the water levels. In the case of Egypt, the Delta is expected to face inundation and salination, and because of that the SNC suggests establishing wetlands in the areas expected to be affected by that. Another adaptation includes paving a coastal road and hard structure, and finally improving the "Coastal Zone Management committee for formulating the ICZM plan" as the reports advises.
Finally, to estimate the cost needed for the aforementioned adaptations, there are two ways of estimation; adaptations limited to Egypt, or what the report called “top-down” approach where the estimations are made annually for all developing regions. For 2020 and 2050, the estimated annual cost is about 200 million dollars. However, Egypt’s most important sectors to be studied are the water resources and agriculture. Also, the reports suggest a couple of approaches for developing Egypt, namely, the pessimistic and optimistic paths. The first is based on a very low rate of economic growth and a high rate of population growth, while the second is based on the opposite estimation. Both estimations are revolved around the micro vs the macro adaptation visions as a way to avoid the predictable severe consequences of climate change. Yet, the only way for Egypt to alleviate the potential risks is to work on the adaptations policies starting from now in order to achieve its goals in the future before climate change becomes very challenging to be confronted.
Reference
Smith.J et.al. (2013). Potential Impacts of Climate Change on the Egyptian Economy.
0 تعليقات